Prediction Time

I’ll admit, trying to pick a winner in the Colts-Pats game is a real bitch. First off, I enjoy watching both teams a lot, and have seen each team dozens of times in recent years. I think they are about as even this year as they’ve ever been. So, I’ll try to break down the reasons for and against each team, and see if I can come to any conclusions.

Reasons to pick the Colts: They’re certainly due, if you believe that teams have to go through a process of losing to win. (Then again, the Pats didn’t go through that when they won their first title.) The defense is on a serious hot streak. The offense is as balanced as it has ever been, and even with its lackluster play in recent weeks, is capable of putting up big numbers in a hurry. The home field. Bob Sanders is expected to be active. They’ve exorcised the Pats demons with two-straight solid performances in Foxborough. Tony Dungy is due some good karma. Adam Vinatieri.

Reasons to pick against the Colts: History. Peyton’s happy feet. The defense has to trend back towards its norm eventually. The offense has looked human at times this year. The special teams may have been worse than the defense all season. Dungy has moved more regular players into special team roles, but I keep waiting for a key member of the defense to get hurt while covering a kick-off.

Reasons to pick the Pats: They came into the dome and smacked the Colts around three years ago, including four straight stops on first and goal to win the game. History. Brady is the ultimate big-game QB. Belichick will figure out a plan to confuse the Colts on both sides of the ball. They showed nothing but vanilla in their loss to the Colts in November and still managed to keep it close. The offense is so diverse, it is difficult to key on any one player or set of plays. They can keep the ball for long drives, keeping Peyton on the bench. Don’t care about where they are playing. The defense remains solid, if banged-up.

Reasons to pick against the Pats: They’re getting old. They’ve used up a monumental amount of luck over the years; things have to go against them at some point. They lack a go-to receiver, although Gaffney is rapidly turning into one. No Adam Vinatieri. Bill Belichick is a bad man, bad meaning bad, and karma may smack him around a little.

I keep going back-and-forth. I can’t see the game being a blow out. I can see the Pats getting a lead and the Colts fighting to get back into it but coming up just short. I can see the Colts getting a lead then needing a Vinatieri field goal late to clinch the win. I can also see a slug-fest that is heavy on touchdowns and light on defensive stops. That’s what is great about this game; both team are very good in some ways, flawed in others, and on balance, they come out to be about equal in overall strength. Two years ago, I thought the Colts had a chance to go into Foxborough and get a win in the divisional playoff. When we walked into our beachfront villa in Puerto Rico that night (vacation dropper!), I saw the Colts had been thoroughly waxed on a typical snowy, muddy New England winter day. I think they have more than a chance this year. I’ve very leery about everything that lines up in New England’s favor, and won’t be terribly surprised if the Colts blow it again. But I think Sunday is the day Peyton finally plays well in a huge game, the defense does just enough to give the offense some breathing room, and Indianapolis at last becomes a legitimate football town, as all generations are wrapped up in the team’s win.

Colts 35 Patriots 27

NFC:

Saints 24 Bears 13